Home ＞  きさらぎ賞【データ考察】

きさらぎ賞【データ考察】

2月17日（日）京都6日目 11R
きさらぎ賞（JpnIII） 芝1800m

過去10年データ

◆人気別実績
▽1番人気【2 3 2 3】連対率50%
▽2番人気【4 3 0 4】連対率70%
▽3番人気【3 1 1 5】連対率40%
▽4番人気【0 1 3 6】連対率10%
▽5番人気【0 1 2 7】連対率10%
▽6番人気【1 1 0 8】連対率20%

1〜3番人気の連対率は驚異の8割
無暗な大穴狙いは控えた方がいいかも…

◆前走クラス別実績
▽ＧI                【0 2 0 5】連対率29%
▽ＧIII              【1 3 5 26】連対率11%
▽OP特別      【2 5 0 13】連対率35%
▽500万特別 【7 0 2 24】連対率21%
▽それ以外    【0 0 3 25】連対率0%

500万特別以下のレースを使ってきた馬たちは出番ナシ

◆前走着順実績
▽1着【6 5 3 38】連対率21%
▽2着【2 2 4 9】連対率24%
▽3着【1 1 1 3】連対率33%
▽4着【0 1 1 4】連対率17%
▽5着【1 1 0 7】連対率22%
▽6着以下【0 0 1 32】連対率0%

6着以下の馬は問答無用で消してよさそう

◆キャリア別実績
▽1戦【0 0 1 4】連対率0%
▽2戦【2 0 3 6】連対率18%
▽3戦【4 1 2 16】連対率22%
▽4戦【1 2 2 11】連対率19%
▽5戦【2 2 1 13】連対率22%
▽6戦【0 2 1 12】連対率13%
▽7戦【0 1 0 9】連対率10%
▽8戦【1 2 0 10】連対率23%
▽9戦以上【0 0 0 12】連対率0%

1戦or9戦以上の戦歴を持って挑んだ馬たちは悪戦苦闘…。昨年のオーシャンエイプスがいい例


◇　結論
素質よりも経験を重視した方がよさそう。人気になりそうなブラックシェルは今回5戦目で戦ってきた相手のレベルも高い。中心の1頭に挙げていいと思う。先行馬がある程度の結果を残している経緯からレッツゴーキリシマ、スマイルジャック辺りも注意を払いたい。スマイルジャックは前走500万下3着だが勝ち馬が共同通信杯を制したショウナンアルバ。一叩きされた今回は状態アップも見込めるので面白い。

レース展望・回顧 | 2008-02-13(Wed) 11:18:47 | トラックバック:(764) | コメント:(1)
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